Recession Signal Seen in U.S. Labor-Market Conditions
The next U.S. recession may be months away at most, says Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Societe Generale SA. In a report Friday, Edwards cited an indicator derived from monthly changes in the Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Conditions Index. The cumulative gauge peaked in December, and past highs preceded the start of recessions by three to 17 months. Edwards wrote that he expects the yield on 10-year Treasury notes to reach minus 1 percent and the S&P 500 Index to drop below its March 2009 low of 676.53.